Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?

Yes/No Opened 23 March 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 3 January 2024 467 forecasts 67 forecasters

In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, BBC).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the Lebanese parliament appoints a president on or before 31 December 2023, as reported by reputable open-source news media coverage (e.g., AP News, Reuters, New York Times).

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.