Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?

Multiple choice Opened 24 March 2022 Closed 1 April 2023 Resolved 21 April 2023 855 forecasts 121 forecasters

This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports.
For the purposes of this question:

“Events involving Russian security forces” refers to events directly and plausibly attributable to forces that fall under the Security Council of Russia.
“Events resulting in 25 or more fatalities” refers to one or more events totaling 25 or more fatalities in each country by 1 April 2023. If there are events in both countries that lead to over 25 fatalities in total, but there are fewer than 25 fatalities in each country by 1 April 2023, this question will resolve as “No, neither country.”
The fatalities must occur on the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of Georgia or Moldova. An airstrike or remote attack launched from outside these countries will count if it results in fatalities within Georgia or Moldova.
For the purposes of this question, events in unrecognized breakaway states would be considered as occurring in the larger, internationally recognized country (e.g., an event that occurs in Transnistria would count as occurring in Moldova).
An example of an event that would meet this criteria is the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 (Reuters, Wikipedia).

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova	0%	Did not happen
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia	1%	Did not happen
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova	0%	Did not happen
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova	98%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.