How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 26 May 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 20 April 2023 238 forecasts 55 forecasters

Question will be resolved using LinkedIn Economic Graph data from the OECD AI Policy Observatory’s data on AI jobs and skills. The link will take you to the “AI Skills Penetration: Country Rankings By Year” page.
AI skills penetration refers to the prevalence of LinkedIn members with AI skills for each year. See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the LinkedIn data. Question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and resolved when the OECD database is updated.
New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
1	2%	Did not happen
2	20%	Did not happen
3	57%	Did not happen
4 or lower	21%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

3 4 or lower 2 1

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.