Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Note: You are asked to submit a forecast between 0-100% chance for EACH of the countries listed, as this may occur for one, multiple, or none.
Sovereign debt defaults occur when a government is unable or unwilling to meet its financial obligations to external creditors. Latin American countries have a history of debt crises, with some nations facing ongoing economic challenges that could potentially lead to debt servicing difficulties.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" for any given country if credible financial news sources or international financial institutions (such as the IMF, World Bank, or major credit rating agencies) report that the country’s government has entered a form of sovereign default, such as by missing a payment on external debt obligations and not making the payment within an applicable grace period, or announcing a moratorium on external debt payments. A default will be considered to have occurred at the earliest instance reported by a major financial news source or institution.
For the purpose of this question, "external debt" refers to debt issued under foreign jurisdictions or denominated in foreign currencies. Temporary payment delays due to technical issues that are quickly resolved will not be considered defaults.
Sovereign debt defaults occur when a government is unable or unwilling to meet its financial obligations to external creditors. Latin American countries have a history of debt crises, with some nations facing ongoing economic challenges that could potentially lead to debt servicing difficulties.
- Argentina has defaulted multiple times in recent decades, including in 2001, 2014, and 2020. As of March 2024, Argentina's external debt was about 45% of GDP (European Parliament, S&P Global, Focus-Economics).
- Bolivia has not defaulted since the 1980s, but is currently facing economic pressures. Its external debt reached 35% of GDP in December 2023, with rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves raising concerns (Credendo, CEIC Data).
- Ecuador last defaulted in May 2020, followed by debt restructuring. Its external debt was about 55% of GDP at the end of 2023, with ongoing economic challenges including fiscal deficits, limited access to international markets, vulnerability to oil price fluctuations, and political instability (FDL, Credendo, IMF).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" for any given country if credible financial news sources or international financial institutions (such as the IMF, World Bank, or major credit rating agencies) report that the country’s government has entered a form of sovereign default, such as by missing a payment on external debt obligations and not making the payment within an applicable grace period, or announcing a moratorium on external debt payments. A default will be considered to have occurred at the earliest instance reported by a major financial news source or institution.
For the purpose of this question, "external debt" refers to debt issued under foreign jurisdictions or denominated in foreign currencies. Temporary payment delays due to technical issues that are quickly resolved will not be considered defaults.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 3% | Did not happen |
| Bolivia | 3% | Did not happen |
| Ecuador | 3% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
Argentina
Bolivia
Ecuador