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Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 16 June 2022 Closed 30 July 2022 Resolved 1 August 2022 188 forecasts 81 forecasters

In October of 2021, the American Innovation and Choice Online Act was introduced in the U.S. Senate as a piece of anti-trust legislation targeting large online platforms. The bill would, among other things, prohibit platforms from giving preferential treatment to their own products and restricting competitors’ access to data generated on the platform (Brookings).  

The bill was reported to the Senate by the Committee on the Judiciary in March, and recent statements by the bill’s sponsors have suggested that a vote is imminent. However, many big tech companies have lobbied against the bill, claiming that it would harm consumers and create cybersecurity risks (Bloomberg). Additionally, some Senate Democrats have expressed concerns that a vote could harm re-election chances in the fall (Politico).  

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes, and it will pass 1% Did not happen
Yes, and it will not pass 1% Did not happen
No 98% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Jul 2022 98% 1% 1%
No Yes, and it will not pass Yes, and it will pass
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.