In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial?

Multiple choice Opened 31 January 2022 Closed 1 April 2022 Resolved 23 March 2022 85 forecasts 45 forecasters

The US competitive advantage will grow the more diverse the artificial intelligence field becomes (NSCAI Chapter 11). Question will be resolved based on data in Stanford University's Artificial Intelligence Index 2022 Report. The 2021 Report was released in March of 2021 and the relevant data was provided in Chapter 6.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 28	12%	Did not happen
Between 28 and 30, inclusive	24%	Did not happen
More than 30 but less than 32	32%	Did not happen
Between 32 and 35, inclusive	23%	Did not happen
More than 35	9%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Between 32 and 35, inclusive More than 30 but less than 32 Between 28 and 30, inclusive Less than 28 More than 35

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.