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Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?

Yes/No Opened 18 April 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 5 September 2023 282 forecasts 55 forecasters
Thailand’s election, scheduled for 14 May 2023, pits pro-military parties led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha against pro-democracy parties, including Pheu Thai (CNN, CFR). This election is the second since the 2014 coup that brought General Prayut Chan-o-cha to power (BBC). The first election in 2019 was criticized by election monitors and opposition parties as illegitimate (CNN). It resulted in a pro-military governing coalition that elected Prayut as Prime Minister, despite Pheu Thai winning the most seats in the House of Representatives (The Guardian).  
Resolution Criteria:This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports. For the purposes of this question, the governing coalition is defined as the parties voting in favor of the Prime Minister who is ultimately elected to run the Thai government. The question will resolve “No” if a governing coalition is elected without Pheu Thai, if no election is held, or if no government is formed by 31 December 2023.  

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 99% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023 99% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.