From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?

Yes/No Opened 10 February 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 17 January 2024 406 forecasts 45 forecasters

This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data become available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts:

2017: 683
2018: 1381
2019: 360
2020: 455
2021: 179
2022: 569
2023: 53

Additional Reading:

Syrian Kurdish commander wants peace with Turkey, but will 'fully' resist attack

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.