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Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023?

Yes/No Opened 11 August 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 10 January 2023 156 forecasts 41 forecasters

Google’s tensor processing units (TPUs) are AI hardware accelerators that have led to dramatic improvements in training large machine learning models based on neural networks. Google began using TPUs internally in 2015, and in 2018 made them available for third party use, both as part of its cloud infrastructure and by offering a smaller version of the chip for sale (Wikipedia). While per-unit costs of cloud computing services tend to fall over time, analysts are concerned that the current geopolitical and economic environment could mean that this is due for a correction in the near future (S&P Global). 


This question will resolve using the "on-demand / evaluation" price per chip-hour for Cloud TPU v4 available on Google's Cloud TPU Pricing page. At the time of question posting (11 August 2022), the price was $3.22. This question will resolve "no" if the price is the same ($3.22) or is lower on 1 Jan 2023.

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 0% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Aug 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 0% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.