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Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Yes/No Opened 4 September 2025 Closed 1 July 2026 Resolved 1 July 2026 483 forecasts 74 forecasters
The imposition of new economic sanctions or trade restrictions by China, Russia, the United States, or the European Union on state-owned oil or gas entities in the MENA region would shape investment climates and energy flows. Key sanctions trackers include the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) Sanctions Programs and Country Information and the European Commission EU sanctions tracker.   Resolution Criteria:  This question will resolve through official government announcements and/or reports from credible news outlets. We define sanction as “the withdrawal of customary trade and financial relations for foreign- and security-policy purposes” (CFR). Sanctions must target a specific company or organization for the question to resolve as “Yes.” Sanctions against an individual will not be sufficient for resolution.  

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 0% Did not happen
No 100% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Sep 2025 Feb 2026 Jul 2026 100% 0%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.