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Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?

Yes/No Opened 18 May 2023 Closed 9 February 2024 Resolved 5 June 2024 683 forecasts 104 forecasters
Pakistan is set to have elections by October 2023. The specific date has not yet been set, as it depends on the timing of the dissolution of the Assembly, but opposition parties have agreed to hold national and provincial elections at the same time (Article 224 of the Constitution of Pakistan, Al Jazeera). Imran Khan, the former prime minister of Pakistan whose arrest on corruption charges has led to widespread protests, is expected to run (Reuters, BBC). 
Resolution Criteria:  This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports, and will resolve “Yes” if Imran Khan is elected prime minister by the National Assembly of Pakistan following Pakistan’s next national elections. If another candidate is elected prime minister, the question will resolve “No.” If no government has been formed by 31 December 2023, the end date will be extended until a prime minister is elected or new elections are called. If subsequent elections are called because no government was formed, the question will be resolved as “No.” Appointment as a care-taker prime minister (in accordance with Article 224 of Pakistan's constitution) will not count towards resolution.
Additional Reading: 

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 0% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% May 2023 Oct 2023 Feb 2024 0% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.