Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Colombia will hold presidential elections on 31 May 2026 to select a successor to President Gustavo Petro, who is constitutionally barred from seeking consecutive reelection (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil). If no candidate receives more than 50% of votes in the first round, a runoff election will be held on 21 June 2026 (Wikipedia).
Senator Iván Cepeda won the ruling Historic Pact coalition's primary on 26 October 2025 with 65.12% of votes, securing the left-wing nomination (Colombia One). Sergio Fajardo, a centrist and former mayor of Medellín, announced his third consecutive presidential candidacy in July 2025 and on 8 December 2025 confirmed he would skip the March 2026 interparty primaries to run directly in the May first round (Colombia One). Abelardo de la Espriella, a criminal defense lawyer running as a far-right independent, submitted over 4.8 million signatures on 4 December 2025 to qualify for the ballot and also announced he would skip right-wing primaries (Infobae). In early December 2025 polling by Invamer, Cepeda led with 31.9% support, followed by de la Espriella at 18.2% and Fajardo at 8.5% (The City Paper Bogotá).
Resolution Criteria:This question will be resolved using official results published by the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil, Colombia's official electoral authority, which can be accessed at https://www.registraduria.gov.co or https://observatorio.registraduria.gov.co.The question will resolve based on which candidate wins the Colombian presidency in either the first round (31 May 2026) or, if necessary, the second (runoff) round (21 June 2026). The candidate must be declared the official winner by the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil.
Senator Iván Cepeda won the ruling Historic Pact coalition's primary on 26 October 2025 with 65.12% of votes, securing the left-wing nomination (Colombia One). Sergio Fajardo, a centrist and former mayor of Medellín, announced his third consecutive presidential candidacy in July 2025 and on 8 December 2025 confirmed he would skip the March 2026 interparty primaries to run directly in the May first round (Colombia One). Abelardo de la Espriella, a criminal defense lawyer running as a far-right independent, submitted over 4.8 million signatures on 4 December 2025 to qualify for the ballot and also announced he would skip right-wing primaries (Infobae). In early December 2025 polling by Invamer, Cepeda led with 31.9% support, followed by de la Espriella at 18.2% and Fajardo at 8.5% (The City Paper Bogotá).
Resolution Criteria:This question will be resolved using official results published by the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil, Colombia's official electoral authority, which can be accessed at https://www.registraduria.gov.co or https://observatorio.registraduria.gov.co.The question will resolve based on which candidate wins the Colombian presidency in either the first round (31 May 2026) or, if necessary, the second (runoff) round (21 June 2026). The candidate must be declared the official winner by the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Iván Cepeda | 43% | Did not happen |
| Sergio Fajardo | 2% | Did not happen |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 47% | Happened |
| Other | 8% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella
Other
Sergio Fajardo