Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 26 May 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 20 April 2023 194 forecasts 45 forecasters

Question will be resolved using Scopus data from the OECD AI Policy Observatory’s data on AI research. The link will take you to the “AI scientific publications time series by country, from Scopus” page. Set the following parameters for the data:

Indicator: Citations
Quality Rankings: High Impact FWCI>1.5
Publication Type: All

See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the SCOPUS data. Question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and resolved when the OECD database is updated with data. Question will be resolved in the first week of April 2023 to account for any lags in reporting.
New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
China	2%	Did not happen
EU	59%	Happened
United States	31%	Did not happen
India	7%	Did not happen
Other	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

EU United States China India Other

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.