How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?
Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here.
Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development.
Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through March 31, 2021.
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for the following scenarios:
- The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
- Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
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Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 30,000 | 7% | Did not happen |
| Between 30,000 and 38,000, inclusive | 17% | Did not happen |
| More than 38,000 but less than or equal to 46,000 | 38% | Did not happen |
| More than 46,000 but less than or equal to 54,000 | 27% | Did not happen |
| More than 54,000 | 11% | Happened |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
No aggregate forecast history is available for this question.