Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023?
The Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, has 120 seats, so a party or coalition of parties must have at least 61 seats to govern. Governing coalitions have proven fragile in recent years, with five elections being called in four years (CNN). On 21 December 2022, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed the current governing coalition with 64 seats, 50 days after the most recent elections on 1 November 2022 (AP News). However, the government now faces nationwide strikes and protests as a result of their efforts to change Israel’s Supreme Court (CBS News).
Resolution Criteria:This question will resolve “Yes” if any of the following occur on or before 30 June 2023:
Individual members of the Knesset vacating their seat would not be enough to resolve the question if they are replaced from the party list (see Section 43 of Israel’s Basic Law: The Knesset).
- Any parties or individuals join or leave the coalition
- The current government loses a vote of no confidence in the Knesset
- A new election is called
- The Knesset is dissolved
Individual members of the Knesset vacating their seat would not be enough to resolve the question if they are replaced from the party list (see Section 43 of Israel’s Basic Law: The Knesset).
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.