RAND Forecasting
Initiative Archive
The RAND Forecasting Initiative has concluded. This is a permanent read-only archive. Accounts, forecasting, and comments are no longer available.

← All questions

When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?

Multiple choice Opened 3 March 2022 Closed 1 June 2022 Resolved 28 April 2022 381 forecasts 90 forecasters
Economic and financial sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left the Russian economy and its currency reeling (The Atlantic, CNN, The Guardian).   
Outcome will be determined based on the end of day closing value reported by Bloomberg.  

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Before 1 April 2022 0% Did not happen
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive 80% Happened
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive 7% Did not happen
Not before 1 June 2022 13% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mar 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 80% 13% 7% 0%
Not before 1 June 2022 Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive Before 1 April 2022 Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.