What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?
Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization.
The data underlying the graph is here.
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Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 15% | 4% | Did not happen |
| Between 15% and 17%, inclusive | 21% | Happened |
| More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% | 44% | Did not happen |
| More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% | 25% | Did not happen |
| More than 21% | 6% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.