Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Yes/No Opened 9 July 2024 Closed 1 July 2025 Resolved 1 July 2025 1,498 forecasts 234 forecasters

In March 2024, Vladimir Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term (Reuters). This comes after Putin signed into law in 2021 a change to the Russian constitution that reset his term limits, allowing him to run in 2024 and possibly 2030 (CBS, AP News). However, the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economic problems, and domestic instability remains to be seen (Atlantic Council, Wilson Center).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using open-source news media reports.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	0%	Did not happen
No	100%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

No Yes

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.