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Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?

Yes/No Opened 29 January 2026 Closed 30 April 2026 Resolved 12 May 2026 286 forecasts 90 forecasters

Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as acting president of Venezuela on 5 January 2026 after U.S. special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro in a nighttime military operation on 3 January 2026 (Al Jazeera). Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice ordered Rodríguez to assume presidential duties for 90 days, and the military endorsed her as acting leader (CBS News). Rodríguez had served as Maduro's vice president since 2018 and concurrently held roles as minister of finance and petroleum, positions in which she helped stabilize Venezuela's sanctions-affected economy (NBC News).

Rodríguez's political future remains uncertain. The Trump administration has signaled it will work with her temporarily, though President Trump warned she would "pay a very big price" if she fails to comply with U.S. demands regarding oil access and cooperation (TIME). On 8 January 2026, Rodríguez released nine political prisoners, prompting Trump to cancel a second wave of military strikes, and on 16 January, she met with CIA Director John Ratcliffe to discuss cooperation (Wikipedia). However, Venezuela's opposition—including 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, who claim victory in the disputed July 2024 election—has not been installed. The Venezuelan constitution requires new elections within a month if the president is absent, though it remains unclear how this provision applies given the unprecedented circumstances.

Resolution Criteria:

This question will be resolved using credible international news sources (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, CNN) or official Venezuelan government announcements. This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Delcy Rodríguez holds the title of President or Acting President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026, regardless of whether her tenure is recognized as legitimate by foreign governments. If another individual holds the presidency or acting presidency, if Rodríguez has been removed from power, or if she has resigned, died, or fled the country, the question resolves “No”.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 98% Happened
No 2% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jan 2026 Mar 2026 Apr 2026 98% 2%
Yes No
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.