What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?
Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here.
Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.
Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.
This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for the following scenarios:
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Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 9% | Happened |
| Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive | 29% | Did not happen |
| More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5% | 40% | Did not happen |
| More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5% | 18% | Did not happen |
| More than 6.5% | 4% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.