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Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Yes/No Opened 27 July 2023 Closed 1 January 2025 Resolved 3 January 2025 763 forecasts 73 forecasters
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or “JCPOA”) includes a “snapback” provision which enables a participant state to initiate a process that would reimpose the UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted as part of that agreement (Washington Institute, Iran Watch). The Trump administration tried to initiate this process in 2020, but the effort was rejected by other signatories because the U.S. had withdrawn from the agreement (Washington Post, BBC). 
As part of an attempt to revive the nuclear deal, the Biden administration rescinded that request in 2021 (U.S. Institute for Peace). However, recent developments in Iran’s nuclear weapons program, including the discovery of highly enriched uranium at an Iranian facility in February, has brought the debate over “snapback” sanctions back to the forefront of the policy discussion (NBC News, Financial Times, Reuters).  
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as “Yes” if one of the JCPOA participants initiates the snapback process by filing a letter with the U.N. Security Council, charging Iran with significant non-performance of commitments (see paragraphs 36 and 37 of the JCPOA). Letters to the U.N. Security Council regarding Iran can be found here. Current JCPOA participants include: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, and Iran. The U.S. is no longer considered a participant because it withdrew from the agreement in 2018. 
Additional Reading:
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 0% Did not happen
No 100% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jul 2023 May 2024 Jan 2025 100% 0%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.