Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?

Yes/No Opened 9 March 2023 Closed 1 April 2023 Resolved 4 April 2023 140 forecasts 84 forecasters

SpaceX’s Starship is a super-heavy-lift rocket and spacecraft, and if successful, would be the most powerful rocket system ever launched (Mashable, NASASpaceflight.com, BBC). SpaceX had been preparing for Starship’s first orbital launch test to occur in late 2022, but static fire tests have yet to ignite all 33 Raptor engines (CNET, NASASpaceflight.com). The test flight is now projected for March 2023 (Engadget, Space).

This question will be resolved based on open-source media reporting. The reports must indicate that Starship reached orbit. If Starship fails to reach orbit before 1 April 2023, this question will resolve “No”.

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	1%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.