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Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?

Yes/No Opened 23 February 2023 Closed 1 May 2023 Resolved 31 March 2023 267 forecasts 114 forecasters
On 7 February 2023, Microsoft announced the new Bing, an updated version of its Bing search engine with AI-powered search, answer, and chat capabilities (The Verge). The new Bing is powered by an OpenAI large language model, which Microsoft claims makes it “more powerful than ChatGPT” (ZDNET). With “multiple millions” on the waitlist, Microsoft is in the process of scaling access to the new Bing, but many have raised concerns about the technology giving wrong answers and disinformation (Twitter, Vice, Microsoft).   The new Bing is currently in limited preview and only available through a waitlist. This question will resolve “Yes” if Microsoft makes it fully open to the public without a waitlist on or before 30 April 2023. If Microsoft releases “the new Bing” to the public, with some, but not all, of the features available in the limited preview, this question will still resolve “Yes”.  

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 90% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Feb 2023 Mar 2023 Mar 2023 90% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.