How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?

Multiple choice Opened 23 May 2025 Closed 1 October 2025 Resolved 1 October 2025 784 forecasts 147 forecasters

According to the CDC, as of 15 May 2025 there were a total of 1024 confirmed measles cases across 30 states. As of May 2025, there have been 14 outbreaks (three or more related cases) in 2025, compared to 16 outbreaks in 2024 (ABC News).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve using the CDC’s “Measles Cases and Outbreaks” page. Navigate to the page, and find the shaded box titled “U.S. Cases in 2025.” The question will resolve according to the total number of cases reported for 2025 as of 5:00 pm ET 1 October 2025.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than or equal to 1349	0%	Did not happen
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive	3%	Did not happen
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive	96%	Happened
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive	1%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 1800	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive Less than or equal to 1349 Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive More than or equal to 1800

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.