From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?

Yes/No Opened 12 January 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 16 November 2023 448 forecasts 46 forecasters

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of battle-related fatalities in Ethiopia for a given time period:

Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
Select “Battles” from the event type filter.
Select “Ethiopia” from the Region filter.
Click “Apply Filters”
Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

Fatality counts from previous years are below:

Additional Reading:

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	97%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.