Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Venezuela has claimed sovereignty over the Essequibo territory that makes up two-thirds of Guyana, rejecting the boundary drawn in 1899 (NBC News). The presidents of Venezuela and Guyana met in St. Vincent in December 2023 and they agreed to not use force to settle the territorial dispute, but the fundamental disagreement was not resolved (Reuters). Both sides had agreed to meet again in March, but a meeting was not scheduled. Venezuela instead signed into law the results of a recent referendum declaring that Essequibo belonged to Venezuela (AP News, France 24).
The Essequibo is in light green, with the rest of Guyana shown in dark green and Venezuela in orange. (From Wikipedia)
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using open-source news reports. For the purposes of this question, the Essequibo region and its associated maritime space are considered part of Guyana. Criteria for each of the answer options are below:- Ground invasion: We will consider Venezuela to have invaded Guyana if Venezuelan troops enter Guyana with the intent of occupying, capturing, or controlling territory generally recognized as part of Guyana. Limited or large-scale military incursions by the official armed forces of Venezuela will count towards resolution, but actions by irregular forces or militias will not.
- Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells: Venezuela threatened to use force against ExxonMobil if they operate oil wells in waters claimed by Venezuela (Argus). Any use of force by Venezuela against oil wells in Guyanese waters (including the maritime space off the coast of Essequibo) will count towards resolution.
- Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo: Venezuela unilaterally announces or formally agrees to drop its claim on the Essequibo region, acknowledging the boundary drawn in 1899.
- Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo: Guyana agrees to a new border such that Venezuela would control part or all of the Essequibo region currently recognized as part of Guyana.
Note that you are required to provide forecasts for each of the answer options, but your forecasts need not sum to 100%, since multiple answer options may be correct.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 0% | Did not happen |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | Did not happen |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | Did not happen |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.