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Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?

Yes/No Opened 21 November 2022 Closed 1 April 2023 Resolved 5 April 2023 590 forecasts 172 forecasters
North Korea’s recent flurry of missile launches, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch on 18 November 2022, has raised expectations that it could soon test a nuclear device for the first time since 2017 (CBS). North Korea has finished all technical preparations for a new test in the underground tunnels at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site, which has been shuttered since 2018 (Reuters). Officials in the United States and South Korea have warned for months that Pyongyang is preparing for a nuclear test after a five-year suspension — a move that would signal North Korea speeding ahead with the development of advanced weapons capabilities (Al Jazeera).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). A nuclear test would involve the detonation of a nuclear device. Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons (Mass.gov). 
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Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 6% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 6% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.