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Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?

Yes/No Opened 14 April 2023 Closed 11 July 2023 Resolved 11 July 2023 481 forecasts 110 forecasters
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden moved to join the NATO alliance (USIP, CNN). Accession talks were completed in July 2022, and both countries were set to join NATO after the parliaments of all NATO states ratified their accession (NATO, Reuters). Turkey and Hungary, the only two states not to ratify in 2022, ratified Finland’s membership in March, allowing Finland to become a full member but Sweden still waiting for a decision (NATO, Politico, BBC). Sweden has ratified protocols domestically, so once all NATO member countries agree to the accession protocols, Sweden can formally become a NATO member by acceding to the North Atlantic Treaty and depositing their instruments of accession with the U.S. State Department (AP News, NATO). 
This question will be resolved using an official NATO announcement that Sweden’s instruments of accession have been deposited with the U.S. State Department before the start of the upcoming NATO Summit on 11 July 2023. Recent examples of such announcements include Montenegro’s and North Macedonia’s accessions to NATO.
The end date of this question will be extended if the meeting is postponed or rescheduled. If the meeting is cancelled or a new date is not set by 11 July (the current date of the summit), then 11 July will be used as the question’s deadline.

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 3% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Apr 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 3% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.