By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?

Yes/No Opened 24 February 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 10 January 2023 627 forecasts 96 forecasters

Semiconductors are vital components of electronic devices, and advances in artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and other advanced technologies depends on advances in the physical infrastructure that semiconductors provide. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) dominates semiconductor manufacturing (CNBC). The concentration of fabs, or fabrication facilities, also known as foundries, on Taiwan has led to concern about supply chain vulnerabilities that could disrupt multiple industries. (National Defense, Discourse Magazine). TSMC has announced plans to build fabs in the United States and Japan and is considering whether to build one in Europe (Bloomberg, CNBC, Nikkei Asia, Reuters).

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.