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From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?

Yes/No Opened 5 January 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 16 January 2024 470 forecasts 51 forecasters
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Iran for a given time period: 
  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates. 
  • Select the following event types:
    • Violence against civilians
    • Riots
    • Protests
  • Select “Iran” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters”.
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.

Additional Reading: 

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 1% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jan 2023 Jul 2023 Jan 2024 1% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.