RAND Forecasting
Initiative
Archive
The RAND Forecasting Initiative has concluded. This is a permanent read-only archive. Accounts, forecasting, and comments are no longer available.

← All questions

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Multiple choice Opened 8 August 2025 Closed 1 January 2026 Resolved 7 January 2026 201 forecasts 52 forecasters
Congressional appropriations for the U.S. Space Force’s Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation (RDT&E) accounts have fluctuated in recent years. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY2023 authorized a combined total of $20.8 billion for these accounts, which increased to $24.7 billion in FY2024, before decreasing to $23.6 billion in FY2025. (NOTE: All amounts in the linked NDAAs are listed in thousands of dollars.)
The final FY2026 NDAA, likely to be passed in December 2025, will determine whether this trend of year-to-year changes continues for Space Force O&M and RDT&E funding.
Resolution Criteria: The final calculation for the U.S. Space Force budget will be taken from the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, as published by the U.S. Congress. Specifically, the budget number will be the combined amount from the U.S. Space Force Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation (RDT&E) appropriations. This question will resolve according to the appropriated amount in the FY2026 NDAA or according to the appropriated amount in a potential FY26 Continuing Resolution (CR) and will remain open until the NDAA or CR is passed. 
Recent (FY23-25) authorized funding amounts for Space Force’s combined RDT&E and O&M within the National Defense Authorization Acts:
Fiscal Year Category Amount Requested ($000’s) Amount Authorized ($000’s)
FY2023 RDT&E (“TOTAL RDT&E, SPACE FORCE”) $15,819,372 $16,589,070
O&M (“TOTAL OPERATION & MAINTENANCE, SPACE FORCE”) $4,034,658 $4,184,378
Total $20,773,448
FY2024 RDT&E (“TOTAL RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, TEST & EVAL, SF”) $19,199,340 $19,701,916
O&M (“OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE, SPACE FORCE”) $5,017,468 $4,963,441
Total $24,665,357
FY2025 RDT&E (“TOTAL RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, TEST & EVAL, SF”) $18,700,153 $18,371,754
O&M (“TOTAL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE, SPACE FORCE”) $5,292,272 $5,217,272
Total $23,589,026

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than $21.0 billion 12% Did not happen
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion 63% Happened
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion 9% Did not happen
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion 5% Did not happen
More than or equal to $25.0 billion 11% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Aug 2025 Oct 2025 Jan 2026 63% 12% 11% 9% 5%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion More than or equal to $25.0 billion More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion Less than $21.0 billion
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.