Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?
For the purposes of this question, “secession” for the Republic of Srpska may include the formation of an independent state or joining the Republic of Serbia. This question will be resolved using credible open source media reporting.
In October of 2021, Milorad Dodik, the Serbian representative of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency and the president of the Republic of Srpska, announced that Srpska would be withdrawing from key Bosnian institutions, including the Army (Al Jazeera). Since then, he has continued to spark secessionist flames with nationalist rhetoric (Politico). Growing tensions between Bosnia’s ethnic groups and Srpska's deep ties to Moscow have international observers worried that escalation of this political crisis could lead to the collapse of the Dayton Peace Accords and Russian intervention (Foreign Policy). Previously, in a direct challenge to the Bosnian Constitutional Court and Dayton Accords, the Republic of Srpska held a referendum to establish the Day of Republika Srpska, a holiday celebrating the Republic of Srpska’s 1992 declaration of independence (Politico).
Additional Reading:
In October of 2021, Milorad Dodik, the Serbian representative of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency and the president of the Republic of Srpska, announced that Srpska would be withdrawing from key Bosnian institutions, including the Army (Al Jazeera). Since then, he has continued to spark secessionist flames with nationalist rhetoric (Politico). Growing tensions between Bosnia’s ethnic groups and Srpska's deep ties to Moscow have international observers worried that escalation of this political crisis could lead to the collapse of the Dayton Peace Accords and Russian intervention (Foreign Policy). Previously, in a direct challenge to the Bosnian Constitutional Court and Dayton Accords, the Republic of Srpska held a referendum to establish the Day of Republika Srpska, a holiday celebrating the Republic of Srpska’s 1992 declaration of independence (Politico).
Additional Reading:
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.