Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?
An “irregular transition” refers to any process that does not follow the regular legal democratic process for replacing heads of state. Examples of irregular transitions include coups, assassinations, and other forms of undemocratic removal. In contrast, regular democratic transition processes may be triggered by events like resignations, elections, or deaths by natural causes.
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports (e.g., Reuters, New York Times, AP, BBC). In the event that it is unclear whether or not Ariel Henry is still president/acting president (e.g., there are multiple claims on the presidency, Ariel Henry loses control of parts of the country, or he is exiled), this question will be resolved based on confirmed reports of who the United States government recognizes as President of Haiti.
Additional Reading:
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports (e.g., Reuters, New York Times, AP, BBC). In the event that it is unclear whether or not Ariel Henry is still president/acting president (e.g., there are multiple claims on the presidency, Ariel Henry loses control of parts of the country, or he is exiled), this question will be resolved based on confirmed reports of who the United States government recognizes as President of Haiti.
Additional Reading:
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.