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Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?

Yes/No Opened 6 June 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 5 January 2024 646 forecasts 148 forecasters
“Provenance" refers to the record of something's origin and history of ownership, and in a technological context, provenance can be used to verify the authenticity and integrity of digital content (The Bit). Because digital provenance shows where content came from, who created it, and how it has been edited over time, widespread adoption of provenance standards has the potential to become a critical tool for combating disinformation (Stanford Internet Observatory, NSCAI Report).
The Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA) is a standards organization with the goal of enabling "global, opt-in, adoption of digital provenance techniques […] while meeting appropriate security and privacy requirements, as well as human rights considerations” (C2PA Explainer). C2PA was founded by Adobe, Microsoft, Truepic, Arm, Intel, and the BBC to develop a common content provenance standard and combine the work of the previously established Content Authenticity Initiative and Project Origin (Adobe). 

Resolution Criteria:  This question will resolve “Yes” if YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter adds a feature enabling users to view digital provenance on photos or videos. The use of digital provenance does not need to be mandatory and the feature does not need to be available to all users to count towards resolution. Public opt-in or beta testing of a digital provenance feature would count towards resolution.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 3% Did not happen
No 97% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jun 2023 Sep 2023 Jan 2024 97% 3%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.