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From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?

Multiple choice Opened 12 January 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 16 January 2024 494 forecasts 53 forecasters
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Mexico for a given time period: 
  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates. 
  • Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter.
  • Select “Mexico” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters” 
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

Fatality counts from previous years are below:



Additional Reading: 

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than 6,000 99% Happened
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive 1% Did not happen
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive 0% Did not happen
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive 0% Did not happen
More than or equal to 9,000 0% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jan 2023 Jul 2023 Jan 2024 99% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than 6,000 Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive More than or equal to 9,000 Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.