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Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?

Yes/No Opened 1 December 2022 Closed 1 February 2023 Resolved 1 February 2023 236 forecasts 126 forecasters

The European Union has passed eight packages of economic and individual sanctions on Russia and on individuals involved the invasion of Ukraine (European Council). The economic sanctions, which have been extended multiple times since the first round of restrictive measures was passed in 2014, are set to expire on 31 January 2023 (European Council). While some are calling for a ninth package of sanctions (Politico), others worry that European support of Ukraine may wane as the war drags on (Atlantic Council, NYT).


Resolution Criteria:

Question will resolve as “yes” if sanctions from entire sectors (e.g., financial, energy, defense, transport, raw materials, services) are revoked or if sanctions on entire industries are revoked (e.g., “prohibition of imports from Russia of coal” or “SWIFT ban for certain Belarusan or Russian Banks”), or if any sector or industry sanctions are left to expire on 31 Jan 2023. See the “Economic Sanctions” section of the European Council’s Restrictive Measures Document for the sectors (highlighted in bold) and industries (delineated by bullets under the bold sections) currently covered. Small or administrative revisions to existing sanctions that do not impact a whole industry/sector will not count (e.g., lifting sanctions from one Russian bank but leaving them in place on others).

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 1% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 1% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.