Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro running for his third term in office (CBS). The most recent presidential election in 2018 was widely considered illegitimate due to many alleged irregularities and was boycotted by both the main opposition coalition and many voters (Al Jazeera, CNN). Observers are concerned about this election as well, as human rights groups allege that the current government has escalated repression in the leadup to the election, including the arrests of prominent members of civil society and the expulsion of members of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (CSIS, AP News). If re-elected, Maduro’s term would begin on 10 January 2025 (El País).
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, Nicolás Maduro is currently the President of Venezuela, despite many countries not viewing his election as legitimate. Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless Maduro voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President instead before 11 January 2025, even if Maduro is not physically in the country. Any temporary exercise of the President’s duties by others (e.g., in the case of illness) will not affect resolution.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, Nicolás Maduro is currently the President of Venezuela, despite many countries not viewing his election as legitimate. Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless Maduro voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President instead before 11 January 2025, even if Maduro is not physically in the country. Any temporary exercise of the President’s duties by others (e.g., in the case of illness) will not affect resolution.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | Happened |
| No | 1% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
Yes
No