RAND Forecasting
Initiative
Archive
The RAND Forecasting Initiative has concluded. This is a permanent read-only archive. Accounts, forecasting, and comments are no longer available.

← All questions

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Yes/No Opened 10 May 2024 Closed 11 January 2025 Resolved 15 January 2025 698 forecasts 109 forecasters
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro running for his third term in office (CBS). The most recent presidential election in 2018 was widely considered illegitimate due to many alleged irregularities and was boycotted by both the main opposition coalition and many voters (Al Jazeera, CNN). Observers are concerned about this election as well, as human rights groups allege that the current government has escalated repression in the leadup to the election, including the arrests of prominent members of civil society and the expulsion of members of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (CSIS, AP News). If re-elected, Maduro’s term would begin on 10 January 2025 (El País).
Resolution Criteria:  For the purposes of this question, Nicolás Maduro is currently the President of Venezuela, despite many countries not viewing his election as legitimate. Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless Maduro voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President instead before 11 January 2025, even if Maduro is not physically in the country. Any temporary exercise of the President’s duties by others (e.g., in the case of illness) will not affect resolution.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 99% Happened
No 1% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% May 2024 Sep 2024 Jan 2025 99% 1%
Yes No
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.