Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
The chief of Myanmar’s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (Deutsche Welle). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six months in February 2023 and again in July 2023, delaying elections beyond 2023 (AP News). Officials have stated that the election may not occur until a nationwide census is completed in 2024 (ABC Australia).
Additional Reading:
Resolution Criteria:This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as "yes" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.
Additional Reading:
- Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
- Pilot opposition suggests no meaningful census for Myanmar polls (Radio Free Asia)
Resolution Criteria:This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as "yes" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Did not happen |
| No | 100% | Happened |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
No
Yes