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What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?

Multiple choice Opened 18 November 2020 Closed 1 March 2021 Resolved 21 December 2022 71 forecasts 59 forecasters

Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than $260 billion 4% Did not happen
Between $260 billion and $300 billion, inclusive 16% Did not happen
More than $300 billion but less than or equal to $340 billion 46% Did not happen
More than $340 billion but less than or equal to $380 billion 27% Did not happen
More than $380 billion 8% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jan 2021 Feb 2021 46% 27% 16% 8% 4%
More than $300 billion but less than or equal to $340 billion More than $340 billion but less than or equal to $380 billion Between $260 billion and $300 billion, inclusive More than $380 billion Less than $260 billion
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.