Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?

Yes/No Opened 15 April 2024 Closed 1 May 2024 Resolved 24 April 2024 87 forecasts 38 forecasters

The U.S. has been preparing to send a $60 billion military aid package to Ukraine for months (Le Monde). However, the package has been stalled in the House of Representatives with some lawmakers trying to block additional funding for the war in Ukraine, and others trying to gain leverage for other concessions (AP).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as “Yes” if the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives pass a bill to send military and/or financial aid worth at least $10 billion to Ukraine. To count towards resolution, both chambers must pass the same bill, but the President is not required to sign it for the question to be resolved.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	100%	Happened
No	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Yes No

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.