Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?

Yes/No Opened 23 May 2025 Closed 18 July 2025 Resolved 1 August 2025 401 forecasts 172 forecasters

Gallup’s presidential job approval poll asks respondents whether they “approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president.” As of April 2025, President Donald Trump’s second term approval ratings have ranged between 43% to 47%, with its peak being shortly after his second term began in January 2025. For comparison, his job approval rating was 41% at a similar point in his first term. Overall, his first term approval rating averaged 41%, with a high of 49% and a low of 34%.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using Gallup's Presidential Approval Ratings for Donald Trump, and will be resolved as “Yes” if the “Last job approval rating” published by Gallup is higher than 45% at 5:00 pm ET on 1 August 2025.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	3%	Did not happen
No	97%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

No Yes

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.