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Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?

Yes/No Opened 18 April 2023 Closed 1 March 2024 Resolved 1 March 2024 777 forecasts 99 forecasters
Widespread anti-government protests and health concerns surrounding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have led to speculation over how long he will continue as Supreme Leader of Iran (NBC News, New York Times). At the same time, his recent increase in public appearances, pardoning of arrested protestors, and efforts to restore ties with Saudi Arabia are seen by some as attempts to solidify support for his regime (Financial Times, Reuters).   Resolution Criteria:This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports and will resolve “Yes” if Ali Khamenei ceases to be supreme leader of Iran or flees the country (regardless of whether he still claims to be Supreme Leader). Examples of events that could resolve the question include his resignation, replacement, death, or exile.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 0% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Apr 2023 Sep 2023 Mar 2024 0% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.