In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications?

Yes/No Opened 7 September 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 21 April 2023 79 forecasts 33 forecasters

Question will be resolved using Elsevier (Scopus) data from the OECD’s policy observatory’s data on AI research. The link will take you to the “AI scientific publications time series by institution, from Scopus” page. Set the following parameters for the data:

Quality Rankings: High Impact: FWCI > 1.5
Publication Type: ALL
Institution Type: ALL

See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the Elsevier (Scopus) data. Question will be closed for forecasting on 31 December 2022 and resolved in the first week of April 2023 to account for any lags in reporting.
New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	73%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.