What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 28 July 2022 Closed 1 November 2022 Resolved 30 December 2022 125 forecasts 47 forecasters

The Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, dissolved on 30 June 2022, and the Yesh Atid party head, Yair Lapid, began serving as the caretaker Prime Minister (CNN). On 1 November 2022 Israel is scheduled to hold elections for its 120-seat parliament as a result.
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). If after the election a government cannot be formed, new elections will be called.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister	20%	Did not happen
A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister	54%	Happened
A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister	7%	Did not happen
A coalition government is not formed	19%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister A coalition government is not formed A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.