How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?
According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED), there were 641 political violence events (i.e., battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians, excessive force against protesters, and mob violence) in May 2025, compared to 705 in April and 650 in March. Below is a chart showing the number of incidents of political violence in Mexico each month from June 2024 through May 2025:
ACLED has recorded the following counts of political violence events in the month of August:
ACLED has recorded the following counts of political violence events in the month of August:
- Aug 2020: 596
- Aug 2021: 536
- Aug 2022: 622
- Aug 2023: 641
- Aug 2024: 629
- Option 1: Select “Event Counts” for the metric you are interested in.
- Option 2: Select “Political Violence” for the event categories/types.
- Option 3: Select “Custom Date Range” for and select the date range you want to see. For this question, the date range for resolution will be “2025-08-01 to 2025-08-31”.
- Option 5: Select “Mexico” as the country of interest.
- Option 10 (Optional): Select “Yes” to see the event counts grouped by time period (weeks, months, or years, depending on your date range).
- Press “Run Calculations” and the total event count will be in a table on the right.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 600 | 1% | Did not happen |
| Between 600 and 629, inclusive | 6% | Did not happen |
| Between 630 and 659, inclusive | 44% | Did not happen |
| Between 660 and 689, inclusive | 35% | Happened |
| More than or equal to 690 | 14% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
More than or equal to 690
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
Less than 600