Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?

Yes/No Opened 28 April 2022 Closed 1 April 2023 Resolved 21 April 2023 646 forecasts 111 forecasters

Disputes over the border between China and India have resulted in fatal clashes in recent years (Carnegie Endowment). This question will be resolved using open source media reporting. Note that clashes do not necessarily have to be about the border dispute to count for the purposes of this question. Civilian fatalities will be included in the count.

Assessing fatalities in conflict situations is complex. INFER will use all available evidence to assess the number of fatalities. When ranges are provided, we will tend toward the most conservative estimate.
Additional reading:

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	1%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.