How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?
Advances in artificial Intelligence, robotics, and sensory technology has sparked a revolution in self driving vehicles (NHTSA, Wired), but concerns about safety (National Law Review) and distrust of AI (International Journal of Human Computer Interaction) may hamper progress.
Question will be resolved by counting the California DMV’s Autonomous Vehicle Collision reports with accident dates from January through March 2023. To access the list of past reports, scroll down and click the + by the year “2022.”
The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and resolved on 17 April 2023. Additional Reading:
The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and resolved on 17 April 2023. Additional Reading:
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 20 | 3% | Did not happen |
| Between 20 and 29, inclusive | 69% | Did not happen |
| Between 30 and 39, inclusive | 26% | Happened |
| Between 40 and 49, inclusive | 1% | Did not happen |
| More than or equal to 50 | 0% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
Less than 20
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
More than or equal to 50