Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?

Yes/No Opened 5 January 2023 Closed 1 February 2023 Resolved 6 February 2023 134 forecasts 84 forecasters

Orbital rockets are used to launch satellites into orbit around the earth. The number of orbital launches has skyrocketed in recent years, due in large part to increases in Chinese state-led space industry and increased activity by SpaceX (Ars Technica). According to RocketLaunch.Live’s 2022 data, the U.S. launched 85 orbital rockets, and China launched 62. In 2021, China led with 52, compared to 48 launched for the U.S. These are the highest numbers of launches China has ever completed (Global Times). Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using RocketLaunch.Live’s tally of successful orbital rocket launches for January 2023.

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	1%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.