What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?
Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.
Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for the following scenarios:
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Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $400 billion | 3% | Did not happen |
| Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive | 14% | Did not happen |
| More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion | 46% | Did not happen |
| More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion | 28% | Did not happen |
| More than $640 billion | 9% | Happened |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.