According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?

Yes/No Opened 13 June 2025 Closed 1 August 2025 Resolved 1 October 2025 264 forecasts 142 forecasters

In February 2025, the Trump Administration declared the flow of narcotics into the U.S. a national emergency, and therefore imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China (White House). U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) regularly reports drug seizure data. Recent monthly totals include:

April 2025: 58,725 pounds
March 2025: 50,909 pounds
February 2025: 42,583 pounds

Historical July data shows:

July 2024: 39,962 pounds
July 2023: 49,886 pounds
July 2022: 53,891 pounds

Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using U.S. Customs and Border Protection data on Drug Seizure Statistics. To see the weight of drugs seized in July 2025:

Navigate to the CBP Enforcement Statistics page
In the data selection options, under “Metrics” select "Drug Seizure Weight (lbs)". All other options should be “All”.
Locate the "FY Drug Seizure Weight (lbs) by Month" table
Find the figure reported for July 2025

NOTE: The table shows figures rounded to the hundreds. Hover over the number to see the actual number of pounds reported. This number must be equal to or greater than 50,000 lbs for the question to resolve “Yes”.
Resolution will be based on total weight across all drug types. The specific type of drugs seized will not affect resolution.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	67%	Happened
No	33%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Yes No

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.